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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 41

Washington Commanders 21 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 6-J.Slye 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.55 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model