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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 13

Denver Broncos 21 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model