4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 14

Denver Broncos 24 – Washington Commanders 35

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model