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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 80

Denver Broncos 27 – Washington Commanders 35

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left guard to DEN 34 for 14 yards (31-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -1.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model