Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 82

Detroit Lions 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to ATL 20, Center-47-S.Daly. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 36 for 16 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 42-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on ATL-20-D.Alford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.39 EP
52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model