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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

ATL
31.3%
DET
68.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.271 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Desmond Ridder (ATL): +0.018 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
DET 28
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Foot
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Questionable Thigh

DET

Taylor Decker T Out Ankle
Kerby Joseph S Out Hip
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Knee
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Out Knee
David Montgomery RB Doubtful Thigh
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Groin
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 6
–
DET 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:50 FG DET (1:50) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. ATL 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 11:37 FG ATL (11:37) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 10:12 TD DET (10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. ATL 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 01:56 FG DET (1:56) 36-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. ATL 3 – DET 13
  • Q4 09:54 TD DET (9:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – DET 19
  • Q4 04:22 FG ATL (4:22) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – DET 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to DET 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:05) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to ATL 20, Center-47-S.Daly. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 36 for 16 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 42-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on ATL-20-D.Alford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 22.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (1:50) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 81%

    (11:37) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to DET 27, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:56) 36-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to DET 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-K.Raymond to DET 39 for 12 yards (44-T.Andersen). PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 27.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:29) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-S.Daly. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 20 for 1 yard (46-J.Campbell).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (13:09) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-S.Daly. 21-M.Hughes ran ob at ATL 19 for 8 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (8:30) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. DET-79-J.Cominsky was injured during the play.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (5:26) 3-J.Fox punts 25 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-89-B.Wright.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to DET 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:58) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to ATL 35, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to DET 33, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 33.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (13:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:22) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:25) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to ATL 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.