4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to DET 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model