Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to DET 33, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.27 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model