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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 6

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model