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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 14
Buffalo Bills 13 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(:22) 2-T.Bass 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The Three Options
GO
+2.42 EP
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.50 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP
KICK
+2.53 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT
-0.09 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
