Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Sam Howell (WAS): -0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BUF offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- WAS defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- BUF defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
BUF
No players on the report.
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:32 FG BUF (9:32) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – WAS 0
- Q1 00:47 TD BUF (:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – WAS 0
- Q2 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 2-T.Bass 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 13 – WAS 0
- Q2 00:22 FG BUF (:22) 2-T.Bass 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 16 – WAS 0
- Q4 10:43 TD BUF (10:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – WAS 0
- Q4 10:12 TD BUF (10:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at WAS 32. 57-A.Epenesa for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 29 – WAS 0
- Q4 02:19 TD BUF (2:19) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 36 – WAS 0
- Q4 00:50 FG WAS (:50) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. BUF 37 – WAS 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(9:32) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:35) 8-S.Martin punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:59) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to BUF 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 11-D.Harty to WAS 45 for 23 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on WAS-51-D.Mayo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 45.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(11:46) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short middle to 85-C.Turner.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 16 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 69%
(2:00) 2-T.Bass 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%
(:22) 2-T.Bass 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%
(14:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs (94-D.Payne).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:20) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BUF 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 19 at the 33 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 75%
(:50) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.