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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 37
Buffalo Bills 16 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(14:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs (94-D.Payne).
The Three Options
GO
+1.83 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
KICK
+0.40 EP
- 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 33% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
