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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 8-S.Martin punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model