Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

(13:01) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to KC 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model