Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CHI offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.191 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.214 EPA/dropback
- KC offense: +0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- KC defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
CHI
KC
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:55 TD KC (6:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-J.McKinnon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 6
- Q2 11:42 TD KC (11:42) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 13
- Q2 03:08 TD KC (3:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 20
- Q2 01:55 FG KC (1:55) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CHI 0 – KC 24
- Q2 01:08 TD KC (1:08) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 30
- Q2 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CHI 0 – KC 34
- Q3 07:44 TD KC (7:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 40
- Q4 13:36 FG CHI (13:36) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – KC 41
- Q4 04:23 TD CHI (4:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – KC 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 50%
(12:34) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to CHI 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(9:50) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to KC 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 41 for 23 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 53-T.Edwards).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 46%
(2:39) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%
(8:41) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to KC 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington to KC 12 for 2 yards (31-Ja.Jones).
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Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%
(1:55) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:47) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to KC 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington to KC 35 for 8 yards (12-V.Jones; 57-J.Sanborn).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:01) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to KC 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Mooney.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to KC 7 for 1 yard (98-T.Wharton).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(13:36) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.