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0-3 HC Matt Eberflus
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Kansas City Chiefs

2-1 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 16:25 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CHI
12.2%
KC
87.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.191 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.214 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 17 10–24
–
KC 31 24–38
Projected margin: KC by 14 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Khalid Kareem LB Out Hip
Eddie Jackson S Doubtful Foot
Nate Davis G Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

KC

Nick Bolton LB Out Ankle
Richie James WR Out Knee
Willie Gay LB Questionable Quadricep
Isiah Pacheco RB Questionable Hamstring
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10
–
KC 41

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:55 TD KC (6:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 1-J.McKinnon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 11:42 TD KC (11:42) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 03:08 TD KC (3:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 20
  • Q2 01:55 FG KC (1:55) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CHI 0 – KC 24
  • Q2 01:08 TD KC (1:08) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 30
  • Q2 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. CHI 0 – KC 34
  • Q3 07:44 TD KC (7:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – KC 40
  • Q4 13:36 FG CHI (13:36) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 3 – KC 41
  • Q4 04:23 TD CHI (4:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – KC 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:34) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to CHI 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:50) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to KC 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 41 for 23 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 53-T.Edwards).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 47%

    (2:39) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%

    (8:41) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to KC 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington to KC 12 for 2 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (1:55) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:47) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to KC 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington to KC 35 for 8 yards (12-V.Jones; 57-J.Sanborn).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:01) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to KC 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Mooney.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to KC 7 for 1 yard (98-T.Wharton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (13:36) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    See the full breakdown →