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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 59

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 41

What Actually Happened

(4:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Mooney.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model