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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 41

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP