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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 14 at the 44
Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7
What Actually Happened
(2:39) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.03 EP
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
KICK
-0.85 EP
- 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
