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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Arizona Cardinals 18

What Actually Happened

(:37) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 29 for 19 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model