Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ARI offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to DAL: Joshua Dobbs (ARI) -0.078 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.166 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- DAL defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
DAL
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:35 FG ARI (12:35) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. DAL 0 – ARI 3
- Q1 06:16 TD ARI (6:16) 6-J.Conner right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – ARI 9
- Q1 01:52 FG DAL (1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – ARI 9
- Q2 12:38 TD ARI (12:38) (Shotgun) 4-R.Moore left tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – ARI 15
- Q2 05:40 TD DAL (5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – ARI 15
- Q2 01:31 FG ARI (1:31) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. DAL 10 – ARI 18
- Q2 00:04 FG ARI (:04) 5-M.Prater 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. DAL 10 – ARI 21
- Q3 09:30 FG DAL (9:30) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – ARI 21
- Q4 09:36 FG DAL (9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 16 – ARI 21
- Q4 07:27 TD ARI (7:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-M.Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Lawrence]. DAL 16 – ARI 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 91%
(12:35) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(10:16) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to DAL 44 for 28 yards (33-D.Clark). PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 77%
(1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%
(1:31) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:37) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 29 for 19 yards (29-C.Goodwin).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(9:30) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(7:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 52 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at ARI 23 for 51 yards (0-Z.Pascal). PENALTY on DAL-50-D.Harper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 18 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(15:00) 16-N.Cooney punts 42 yards to DAL 36, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.