Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 52 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at ARI 23 for 51 yards (0-Z.Pascal). PENALTY on DAL-50-D.Harper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model