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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 3 at the 4
Dallas Cowboys 13 – Arizona Cardinals 21
What Actually Happened
(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
The Three Options
GO
+3.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK
+1.75 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
