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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.05 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model