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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 30-A.Ingold up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton, 42-N.Bonitto).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model