4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DEN
29.9%
MIA
70.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.238 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.096 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
MIA 27
Projected margin: MIA by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Frank Clark LB Out Hip
Justin Simmons S Out Hip
Mike Purcell DT Questionable Ankle

MIA

Salvon Ahmed RB Doubtful Groin
Elijah Campbell S Questionable Knee
Raekwon Davis DT Questionable Wrist
Julian Hill TE Questionable Ankle
Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Back
Terron Armstead T Questionable back, ankle, knee
Tyler Kroft TE Questionable Back
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20
–
MIA 70

Prediction missed by 45 pts on margin, 41 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:48 TD MIA (13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 06:36 TD MIA (6:36) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – MIA 13
  • Q1 01:21 TD DEN (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins]. DEN 6 – MIA 14
  • Q2 10:21 TD MIA (10:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – MIA 20
  • Q2 06:41 FG DEN (6:41) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – MIA 21
  • Q2 01:55 TD MIA (1:55) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – MIA 27
  • Q2 01:33 TD MIA (1:33) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – MIA 34
  • Q2 00:07 FG DEN (:07) 16-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 13 – MIA 35
  • Q3 07:52 TD MIA (7:52) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – MIA 41
  • Q3 00:38 TD MIA (:38) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – MIA 48
  • Q4 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – MIA 55
  • Q4 09:17 TD MIA (9:17) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass deep right to 3-R.Chosen for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – MIA 62
  • Q4 09:05 TD DEN 7-J.Sanders kicks 64 yards from MIA 35 to DEN 1. 19-M.Mims for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 19 – MIA 63
  • Q4 08:12 TD MIA (8:12) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – MIA 69

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 19 for 10 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell, 0-J.Cooper).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (6:41) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:52) 30-A.Ingold up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton, 42-N.Bonitto).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 57%

    (3:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 14 for 5 yards (1-T.Smith).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 16-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:52) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to DEN 48 for 38 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell). PENALTY on MIA-41-C.Tindall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 29.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (12:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (4:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton [93-D.Hand].