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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 19 for 10 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell, 0-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model