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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 7

Denver Broncos 10 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(:07) 16-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model