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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 56 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.42 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP