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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 13 – Miami Dolphins 56

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP