Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 92

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(10:47) 11-J.Stout punts 65 yards to IND 27, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-80-I.Likely.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +1.04 EP
60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 92, worth -5.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model