IND @ BAL — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen

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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

IND

31.9%

BAL

68.1%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

IND offense: -0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
Gardner Minshew (IND): +0.191 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Gardner Minshew in place of Anthony Richardson)
BAL offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 18

–

BAL 26

Projected margin: BAL by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

IND

Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion

Anthony Richardson QB Out Concussion

Quenton Nelson G Questionable Toe

Dallis Flowers CB Questionable Ankle

Kenny Moore CB Questionable Knee

BAL

Odell Beckham WR Out Ankle

Justice Hill RB Out Foot

Marlon Humphrey CB Out Foot

Tyler Linderbaum C Out Ankle

Odafe Oweh LB Out Ankle

Ronnie Stanley T Out Knee

Marcus Williams S Out Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 22

–

BAL 19

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:42 TD BAL (6:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – BAL 6
Q2 06:13 TD IND (6:13) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 21-Z.Moss for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – BAL 7
Q2 03:30 FG IND (3:30) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – BAL 7
Q3 08:38 FG IND (8:38) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – BAL 7
Q3 00:19 TD BAL (:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – BAL 13
Q4 11:27 FG IND (11:27) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – BAL 14
Q4 07:38 FG BAL (7:38) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. IND 16 – BAL 17
Q4 02:05 SAF BAL (2:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked ob in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY. IND 16 – BAL 19
Q4 01:02 FG IND (1:02) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 19 – BAL 19
Q5 01:14 FG IND (1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 22 – BAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 18 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23%

(13:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 20 for 7 yards (85-A.Ogletree).
Q1 IND 4th & 18 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(3:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

(13:05) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-50-S.Olubi.
Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 92

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(10:47) 11-J.Stout punts 65 yards to IND 27, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-80-I.Likely.
Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

(3:30) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q2 BAL 4th & 16 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(2:00) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to IND 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 46 for 16 yards (80-I.Likely, 5-J.Armour-Davis).
Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 53%

(11:07) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to IND 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 6-I.McKenzie pushed ob at IND 45 for 32 yards (69-T.Ott).
Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

(8:38) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(7:51) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to IND 22, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie. PENALTY on IND-20-N.Cross, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 22.
Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(5:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 19 for 2 yards (43-T.Denbow).
Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 70%

(11:27) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 32

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 76%

(7:38) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(4:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:28) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to IND 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-5-J.Armour-Davis.
Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(1:48) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to IND 38, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.
Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 34 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

(1:02) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 50%

(:06) 9-J.Tucker 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.