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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 12

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model