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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP