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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 19 for 2 yards (43-T.Denbow).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model