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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP