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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model