4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to IND 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-5-J.Armour-Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model