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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model