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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-50-S.Olubi.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model