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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to MIN 25, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model