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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

LAC
49.5%
MIN
50.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than LAC

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LAC

Austin Ekeler RB Out Ankle
Eric Kendricks LB Out Hamstring
Daiyan Henley LB Questionable Hamstring
Chris Rumph DE Questionable Hamstring
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hamstring
Christopher Hinton DT Questionable Back

MIN

Marcus Davenport DE Out Ankle
Garrett Bradbury C Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 28
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:55 TD LAC (2:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-J.Metellus]. LAC 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 07:33 TD MIN (7:33) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [36-J.Taylor]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 7 – MIN 6
  • Q2 02:11 FG MIN (2:11) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. LAC 7 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:50 TD LAC (:50) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – MIN 10
  • Q3 06:01 TD LAC (6:01) (Shotgun) 13-K.Allen pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – MIN 10
  • Q3 03:09 TD MIN (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 21 – MIN 16
  • Q4 11:30 TD MIN (11:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack]. LAC 21 – MIN 23
  • Q4 08:11 TD LAC (8:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:54) 16-J.Scott punts 27 yards to MIN 43, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-31-N.Niemann.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

    (15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:21) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to MIN 25, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (2:11) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (:50) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 31%

    (13:47) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to LAC 6, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 72%

    (10:54) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 45%

    (7:10) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 70%

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:15) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to MIN 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (2:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson (43-M.Davis) [97-J.Bosa]. Penalty on MIN-18-J.Jefferson, Illegal Shift, declined.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (1:51) 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 24 for no gain (90-J.Bullard). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to LAC 6 for 9 yards (41-R.Layne) [52-K.Mack].