4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to LAC 6, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP