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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 24 for no gain (90-J.Bullard). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.36 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model