4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to LAC 6 for 9 yards (41-R.Layne) [52-K.Mack].

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP