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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 36
New Orleans Saints 14 – Green Bay Packers 0
What Actually Happened
(1:15) 34-T.Jones right end to GB 34 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
The Three Options
GO
+1.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.49 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
KICK
+0.48 EP
- 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 37% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
