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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
35.1%
GB
64.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Jamaal Williams RB Out Hamstring
Foster Moreau TE Doubtful Ankle
Paulson Adebo CB Questionable Hamstring
Ugochukwu Amadi S Questionable Knee

GB

Zayne Anderson S Out Hamstring
Elgton Jenkins G Out Knee
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Back
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Lukas Van Ness LB Questionable Elbow
Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
GB 18

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:44 TD NO (6:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 10:47 TD NO (10:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NO 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 22-R.Shaheed for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:10 FG NO (:10) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 17 – GB 0
  • Q4 11:04 FG GB (11:04) 17-A.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. NO 17 – GB 3
  • Q4 07:02 TD GB (7:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – GB 9
  • Q4 02:59 TD GB (2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – GB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 38 yards to GB 46, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-J.Reed to GB 48 for 2 yards (45-N.Sewell; 48-J.Gray).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 42%

    (10:52) 31-Em.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 48, recovered by GB-10-J.Love at GB 46. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%

    (3:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to NO 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:28) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to GB 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 38 for 4 yards (45-N.Sewell). PENALTY on GB-34-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 36.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NO 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 22-R.Shaheed for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 63%

    (1:15) 34-T.Jones right end to GB 34 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to GB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to NO 44, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 47%

    (6:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 27-P.Taylor.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:56) 39-L.Hedley punts 35 yards to GB 44, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-29-R.Douglas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 44.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (11:04) 17-A.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:38) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to GB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to GB 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 25-K.Nixon to GB 30 for no gain (48-J.Gray). PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%

    (1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.