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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 14 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model