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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 89

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to NO 44, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.86 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model