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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model