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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Green Bay Packers
4th & 2 at the 13
Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 17
What Actually Happened
(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 27-P.Taylor.
The Three Options
GO
+2.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.09 EP
- 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth +0.40 EP
KICK
+2.40 EP
- 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
- 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT
+0.53 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
